JP Morgan sees Macau gaming profits surpassing revenue expansion in 2026

Analysts project that profit growth is likely to reach between 6 and 7 per cent.

Macau.- JP Morgan forecasts that gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos will grow by between 5 and 6 per cent in 2026, with industry profits expected to rise faster. Analysts project that while overall revenue growth will be moderate, profit growth is likely to reach between 6 and 7 per cent, exceeding revenue expansion for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic.,

The forecasts follow better-than-expected performance in 2025, when Macau’s full-year GGR rose 9 per cent to MOP 247.4bn (US$30.9bn), nearly double JP Morgan’s initial growth estimate of 5 per cent. Momentum culminated in the strongest quarterly result in six years in the fourth quarter, when GGR reached MOP 66.1bn (US$8.2bn), up 15 per cent year-on-year and 6 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

December 2025 delivered GGR of MOP 20.9bn (US$2.6bn), representing a 15 per cent year-on-year increase and approximately 91 per cent of pre-pandemic levels. While the result came in slightly below market expectations, analysts attributed that to elevated forecasts rather than weakening demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, JP Morgan expects mass-market and slot revenue to grow by 7 to 8 per cent, while VIP revenue is forecast to decline by around 5 per cent. This view aligns with industry expectations. Other analysts, including those at Deutsche Bank, are also projecting mid-single-digit GGR growth in 2026, alongside stronger profit expansion.

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Analysts project that profit growth is likely to reach between 6 and 7 per cent. Macau.- JP Morgan forecasts that gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos will grow by…