Barclays raises Macau casino revenue forecast

It cites strong visitor numbers and favourable economic conditions.

Macau.- Barclays has raised its forecast for Macau’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 6 per cent to MOP246bn (US$31bn), well above the government’s forecast of MOP228bn (US$28.5bn). It cited strong tourist arrivals, a strong stock market boosting consumer wealth, and improved safety perceptions favouring Macau over Southeast Asian destinations like Thailand, the Philippines, and Cambodia.

As well as the favourable macroeconomic environment, the bank mentioned more relaxed visa policies, and the appeal of major events and concerts as key growth drivers. The “Super Golden Week” holiday from October 1 to 8, combining National Day and the Mid-Autumn Festival, is expected to boost visitor numbers.

In the first eight months of 2025, Macau’s gaming industry generated MOP163bn (US$20,3bn) in GGR, a 7.2 per cent year-on-year increase. The second quarter saw particularly strong growth, with VIP revenue rising 12.9 per cent, outpacing the mass market’s 3.7 per cent growth. Among the six major operators, Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China gained market share, while SJM Holdings’ share dropped to 12.2 per cent, impacted by satellite casino closures.

Barclays forecasts third-quarter GGR growth of 15 per cent year-on-year, driven by new projects like Galaxy Macau Phase 4, though growth is expected to slow to 3 per cent in 2026. It expects mass market revenue to reach 115 per cent of 2019 levels in 2025 and 117 per cent in 2026, with VIP revenue 50 per cent of 2019 levels in 2025 and 51 per cent in 2026.

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It cites strong visitor numbers and favourable economic conditions. Macau.- Barclays has raised its forecast for Macau’s 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) by 6 per cent to MOP246bn (US$31bn), well…