CBRE projects 8.3 per cent Macau GGR growth in 2026

Early-year performance has already strengthened expectations for the rest of 2026.

Macau.- CBRE Equity Research expect Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise 8.3 per cent year-on-year this year. That forecast sits about 2 points above current consensus estimates, which place growth at around 6 per cent.

Macau’s 2025 GGR was MOP247.4bn (US$30.65bn). CBRE’s projected 8.3 per cent increase would mean GGR of around MOP267.95bn (US$33.2bn) in 2026.

In the first quarter, GGR climbed to MOP65.87bn, a 14.3 per cent increase compared with the same period in the previous year. CBRE analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh argue that for full-year results to align with consensus expectations, growth would need to slow over the remaining quarters to around 3.5 per cent. They view such a sharp deceleration as unlikely given current market momentum.

Instead, the brokerage expects Macau’s gaming performance to continue outpacing broader economic growth in mainland China, supported by targeted policy measures aimed at boosting consumer activity.

While concerns have been raised about rising costs and increased competition, CBRE suggests that pressure across the sector is beginning to stabilise. Operators increased spending on promotions and operations towards the end of 2025, but this is expected to level off at a more sustainable range.

The analysts said: “Market-wide commission dollars increased 21 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter to 19.2 per cent of GGR, while non-tax operating expenditure rose 8.6 per cent.” However, the research stated that much of this spending has been concentrated among a few operators pursuing market share gains, such as Las Vegas Sands Corp, rather than reflecting a broad industry trend.

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Early-year performance has already strengthened expectations for the rest of 2026. Macau.- CBRE Equity Research expect Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise 8.3 per cent year-on-year this year. That forecast sits about 2 points above current consensus estimates, which place growth at around 6 per cent. Macau’s 2025 GGR was MOP247.4bn (US$30.65bn). CBRE’s projected…