Citigroup raises Macau full-year GGR forecast

Analysts expect annual gaming revenue to reach US$31.1bn.

Macau.- Citigroup has revised upwards its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau’s casino sector. Analysts now expect GGR for 2025 to reach MOP248.6bn (US$31.1bn), up from a previous estimate of MOP235.7bn (US$29.15bn). Both figures are higher than government estimates.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau noted that the rise in forecast growth from plus 7 per cent to 10 per cent would imply a 14-per cent year-on-year growth for the rest of the year. They also raised their 2026 GGR year-on-year growth forecast from 5 per cent to 7 per cent at MOP265.5bn (US$33.3bn).

GGR growth is expected to be driven by concerts and events hosted by the city’s casino operators and the increasing popularity of baccarat side bets.

The analysts concluded: “The rich concert/event calendar that the casino operators are putting together over the next several months will continue to appeal to premium players. Also, the six casino operators have been introducing some new side bets to their baccarat games. These side bets are significantly enhancing house advantages. We are seeing signs that these side bets are pushing up casino hold rates, and this makes us more comfortable with our current GGR forecasts.”

Jefferies has also raised its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau. Analysts expect GGR for 2025 to reach MOP248bn (US$31.8bn), up from their previous estimate of MOP237bn (US$29.3bn). Jefferies cited the impact of entertainment events and new properties as well as operators offering “more incentives to players,” and “new wealth” benefiting gamblers due to positive performances in the real estate, stock and cryptocurrency markets

Last week, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) was MOP22.16bn (US$2.76bn) in August. That’s an increase of 12.2 per cent in year-on-year terms and slightly higher than July’s GGR of MOP22.13bn (US$2.73bn). Cumulatively, Macau’s GGR for the first eight months of 2025 was MOP163.05bn (US$19.11bn), up 7.2 per cent year-on-year. The figure was 11.7 per cent below pre-pandemic levels (MOP198.22bn / US$24.75bn).

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See also: Macau casino revenue was US$554.4m in first seven days of September, JP Morgan says

Analysts expect annual gaming revenue to reach US$31.1bn. Macau.- Citigroup has revised upwards its gross gaming revenue (GGR) forecast for Macau’s casino sector. Analysts now expect GGR for 2025 to…