Daniel Cheng: “The UAE is still a box of chocolates; we’ll only know what it is when the first property opens”

Veteran gaming consultant Daniel Cheng offers an assessment of Asia’s regulatory outlook, analysing stalled casino legislation, political risk and the technologies reshaping investor confidence across key markets.

Exclusive interview.- As Asian gaming markets navigate a period marked by political volatility, regulatory recalibration and rapid technological change, expectations of expansion remain uneven and, in many cases, restrained. For Daniel Cheng, a veteran industry consultant and former executive at Genting and Hard Rock, the region’s future will be shaped not by headline-grabbing announcements but by governments’ ability to deliver credible, enforceable frameworks that can withstand domestic political pressure.

In this exclusive interview with Focus Gaming News, Cheng reflects on the progress and setbacks of 2025, offering a sober analysis of key jurisdictions including Japan, Thailand, the UAE and the Philippines. He also examines how emerging technologies such as AI, blockchain and cashless gaming systems may strengthen regulatory oversight—while cautioning that technology alone cannot compensate for weak governance. Looking ahead to 2026, Cheng explains why Asia’s gaming outlook remains cautious, fragmented and deeply tied to political realities rather than investor optimism.

Reflecting on 2025, how do you assess the progress and challenges across key Asian gaming markets, particularly regarding legislative developments in Japan, Thailand, and the UAE, compared to your earlier predictions?

The high-control, centre-led Macau market will remain the regional anchor. Singapore continues to be the star, with expectations that new leadership at Resorts World Sentosa will help narrow the gap slightly to Marina Bay Sands in performance. The political flux in Thailand means nothing will happen in 2026. Japan might see some traction on the fate of its two available licenses, but realpolitik needs to prevail for it to see through its course, which is a challenge, as that runs against the grain of a highly ideological prime minister. The UAE, in my view, is still a box of chocolates; I don’t think it’s ever going to be a Singapore, and no analyst can definitively attest to whether a gaming zone in the Middle East will turn out to be more Asian- or Western-oriented, or a hybrid—the former being more preferable to investors. We’ll only truly know when the first property opens in 2027, but I’m not holding my breath.

“The high-control, centre-led Macau market will remain the regional anchor.”

Daniel Cheng, veteran industry consultant and former executive at Genting and Hard Rock.

Thailand’s casino legalisation bill has faced multiple delays and political volatility. Based on your analysis, what are the principal obstacles preventing progress, and do you believe 2026 presents a realistic timeline for substantive legislative movement?

I’m pessimistic that anything will resume in 2026, given the highly polarised political situation and the likelihood that the national election will further weaken the pro-gaming camp. The stalemate can only be broken by putting the agenda to a national referendum. The previously in-power Pheu Thai wants casinos but opposes a referendum, whereas the opposition insists on one. However, if the latter comes into power next year, they will no longer push for it, as they will abandon the casino legislation plan altogether. The only circumstance under which a compromise becomes possible is if the election produces no clear winner.

What lessons from Japan’s experience could be most applicable to Thailand and other ASEAN jurisdictions seeking to establish regulated casino industries?

Japan stands as a case study in what not to do, though its shortcomings don’t map neatly onto the realities of other Asian jurisdictions considering casino legalisation. Each country has its own economic and sociopolitical ecosystem. In countries with a vibrant civil society, controversial legislation should always proceed with caution, as evidenced in Japan and now in Thailand. This is less of an issue in more liberal societies such as the Philippines, although even there, a red line was crossed with the proliferation of online gambling. Jurisdictions like the Philippines and parts of Indochina, including Thailand to some extent, with a track record of weak governance and fragile institutions, will always face investor doubts about their ability to enforce a robust and well-regulated gambling framework.

Examining the broader Asian landscape, how are emerging technologies—particularly AI, blockchain, and cashless gaming systems—reshaping competitive dynamics and regulatory requirements across different jurisdictions?

AI and blockchain technologies offer the potential to strengthen infrastructure, improve social and security safeguards, and support more regulated gaming regimes, addressing some investors’ concerns about enforcement and proper regulation. Today’s self-contained cashless gaming systems mainly serve operators and allow limited regulatory oversight. Only open, legal-tender systems, such as China’s digital renminbi, could truly reshape the gaming regulatory framework. The impact on competition depends on the type of customers each jurisdiction seeks to attract, which is shaped by broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

“AI and blockchain technologies offer the potential to strengthen infrastructure, improve social and security safeguards, and support more regulated gaming regimes, addressing some investors’ concerns about enforcement and proper regulation.”

Daniel Cheng, veteran industry consultant and former executive at Genting and Hard Rock.

Looking ahead to 2026, which Asian jurisdictions do you believe represent the most significant opportunities for regulated gaming expansion, and what critical factors will determine whether nascent markets succeed in establishing viable, transparent regulatory frameworks?

The only Asian jurisdiction with an expansionary vision is the Philippines, although it is actually poised for a market contraction as the government moves to tighten the regulatory framework to remain off the FATF Grey List. Emerging markets such as Vietnam remain far from earning investor confidence in their ability to establish and enforce a credible, well-regulated gambling framework. This is partly due to the continued awarding of ‘pilot’ licenses to favoured local conglomerates and the lack of evidence that authorities can effectively implement and oversee proper regulations, with many junket-driven casinos still operating in the country. South Korea will remain a foreigners-only jurisdiction with little/weak political will for deregulation. Japan holds the only possibility of positive momentum, though I would not necessarily call it bright, as the outlook is heavily dictated by the volatility of its politics.

Veteran gaming consultant Daniel Cheng offers an assessment of Asia’s regulatory outlook, analysing stalled casino legislation, political risk and the technologies reshaping investor confidence across key markets. Exclusive interview.- As…