Fitch Ratings expects Macau GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2026

The ratings agency cited a normalisation in tourism flows.

Macau.- Fitch Ratings has forecast that the growth of Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 4.5 per cent in 2026 supported by a “recovery in tourism flows.” Gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to reach 88 per cent of its 2019 level.

The ratings agency said: “We expect that gaming tourism will continue to drive economic growth, albeit at a slower pace, because weaker economic conditions in Mainland China will increasingly weigh on Chinese tourists.” 

Fitch believes that this caution will be “partially offset by favourable visa policies, continued investment in non‑gaming sectors and improvements in tourism infrastructure”. The agency noted that Macau’s Policy Address for 2026, presented in November, highlighted economic diversification and “strengthened cooperation” to develop the neighbouring cooperation zone of Hengqin.

According to the agency, Macau will continue to run a budget surplus in 2026 thanks to casino taxes. It noted that financial reserves are already sufficient to cover six years of expenditure.

Fitch expects the SAR’s (GDP to grow by 4.6 per cent this year, a downward revision from the 6.9 per cent forecast made in March.

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See also: UBS raises 2026 forecasts for Macau’s gaming industry

The ratings agency cited a normalisation in tourism flows. Macau.- Fitch Ratings has forecast that the growth of Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 4.5 per cent in 2026…