Jefferies lifts growth forecast for Macau’s casino sector

Jefferies sees GGR climbing 13 per cent in Q4 and nearing US$30.7bn for the year.

Macau.- Investment bank Jefferies has raised its expectations for Macau’s casino sector, projecting full-year 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) of MOP$246bn (US$30.7bn) amid a robust recovery across premium and VIP segments.

In a note issued today, Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said they expect fourth-quarter GGR to rise 13 per cent year-on-year to MOP$67.9bn (US$8.4bn), nearly double their previous growth forecast of 6.6 per cent. The revision comes after October’s GGR reaching MOP$24.09bn (US$3.01bn), the best result since 2019. Average daily revenue in early November was up 16 per cent year-on-year.

The analysts cited wealth creation in regional markets as a key driver. pointing to gains in the A-share and Hang Seng Index, stronger private equity investment and a wave of new IPOs supporting GGR growth, especially on premium and VIP segments. The firm also credited entertainment events and casino incentives for sustaining player engagement.

Jefferies expects Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment to expand their market shares in Q4, supported by new facilities and high-end offerings. Sands’ share could rise to 25 per cent, while Galaxy’s may reach 22.3 per cent, the analysts estimated.

Meanwhile, SJM Holdings is likely to face short-term challenges as it closes satellite casinos. Despite this, Jefferies said SJM remains “confident” of retaining most of the approximately 5 per cent market share previously held by the satellite segment, although some temporary dilution of around 1 per cent is expected during the transition.

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Jefferies sees GGR climbing 13 per cent in Q4 and nearing US$30.7bn for the year. Macau.- Investment bank Jefferies has raised its expectations for Macau’s casino sector, projecting full-year 2025…