The brokerage expects GGR to return to growth following the end of the World Cup.
Macau.- Investment bank Jefferies has lowered its full-year 2026 growth forecast for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) following a soft June and and July. Logically, it expects GGR to return to growth in August as the impact of the FIFA World Cup fades.
Jefferies now forecasts Macau’s GGR will grow 5 per cent year-on-year in 2026 to MOP260bn (US$32bn), down from its previous estimate of 6.8 per cent growth. The revised outlook places the brokerage slightly below the market consensus of around 6 per cent growth for the year.
According to analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei, the FIFA World Cup, capital controls and tougher year-on-year comparisons weighed on the market during the second quarter. Macau generated MOP66bn (US$8.2bn) in GGR in Q2, down 7.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 0.1 per cent year-on-year. Despite the Q2 slowdown, first-half GGR still increased by 6.8 per cent to MOP126.9bn (US$15.7bn).
Jefferies expects July GGR to be down by 8 per cent year-on-year as the World Cup, which concludes on Sunday July 19, continues to divert consumer spending away from Macau’s gaming sector. Jefferies forecasts that growth from August will see GGR grow by 2 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter before accelerating to 4 per cent growth in the fourth.
The forecast revision follows similar adjustments by other brokerages. Earlier this week, CLSA lowered its forecast for Macau’s 2026 GGR growth to MOP253.2bn (US$31.3bn). Citigroup has maintained its forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP19bn (US$2.35bn) in July, representing a 5 per cent year-on-year decline.
The brokerage expects GGR to return to growth following the end of the World Cup. Macau.- Investment bank Jefferies has lowered its full-year 2026 growth forecast for Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) following a soft June and and July. Logically, it expects GGR to return to growth in August as the impact of the FIFA…
