JP Morgan cuts February Macau GGR forecast over mixed Lunar New Year performance

The analysts said the holiday started slowly.

Macau.- JP Morgan Securities has revised its February Macau GGR forecast down from 2 to 5 per cent growth to 0 to 2 per cent. That’s due to “mixed lunar new year” performance.

This year, China, Macau’s main tourist market, celebrated Chinese New Year on February 17, with a nine-day holiday running from February 15 to 23. JP Morgan noted that GGR for the first 22 days of February reached MOP 14.3bn (US$1.78bn), or about MOP 650m (US$81m) per day. Last week’s run-rate averaged MOP 785m (US$87m) per day, below the bank’s expectation of MOP 850m (US$95m).

The analysts said the holiday started slowly, with the first four to five days averaging around MOP 450m (US$50m) per day, down from last year. From day six onward, activity picked up, with GGR exceeding MOP 1.2bn (US$133m) per day, implying growth of 10–15 per cent year-on-year.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li, and Lindsey Qian said the following days are crucial, as the post-holiday “tail demand” phase typically sees high-end players accelerate spending. Despite trimming its February forecast, JP Morgan said that January and February combined, adjusted for the lunar holiday’s timing, are still expected to deliver 12–13 per cent year-on-year growth.

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The analysts said the holiday started slowly. Macau.- JP Morgan Securities has revised its February Macau GGR forecast down from 2 to 5 per cent growth to 0 to 2 per cent. That’s due to “mixed lunar new year” performance. This year, China, Macau’s main tourist market, celebrated Chinese New Year on February 17, with…