Macau casino operators faced cost headwinds in Q4, says Citi

Analysts said increased operating expenses muted gains for Macau’s gaming concessionaires.

Macau.- Analysts at Citigroup have said that operating leverage in Macau’s casino industry in the fourth quarter of 2025 was less pronounced than expected due to costs tied to hosting the NBA China Games, supporting the 15th National Games and expenses from the closure of satellite casinos.

In a recent research note, Citi forecast that the industry’s EBITDA for Q4 likely rose around 13 per cent year-on-year to US$2.25bn driven by continued gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth. However rises in operating costs offset some of the anticipated leverage benefits.

Analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau wrote: “If it were not for the incremental operating expenses from the NBA China Games and the 15th National Games, plus the costs related to SJM’s satellite casino closure, operating leverage for the industry in the fourth quarter would have been much greater.”

Citi expects Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China and Sands China forecast to have gained market share in Q4, while SJM may have lost ground due to its satellite closures.

Analysts at Citigroup have predicted that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) could grow 6 per cent this year to MOP263.5bn (US$33bn), which would be about 90 per cent of the 2019 total. It predicts that EBITDA will grow by 10 per cent and that EBITDA margins will remain flat at circa 29 per cent.

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Analysts said increased operating expenses muted gains for Macau’s gaming concessionaires. Macau.- Analysts at Citigroup have said that operating leverage in Macau’s casino industry in the fourth quarter of 2025…