Macau gaming entering more stable phase, S&P says

The ratings agency expects revenue growth to ease in 2026, with steady EBITDA supported by premium mass demand.

Macau.- Gaming in Macau is levelling out following the post-pandemic recovery for a more stable phase, according to new assessments from S&P Global Ratings. While casino revenue is still expected to grow in 2026, the pace will be slower, and operators will face tighter cash flow due to heavy capital expenditure and shareholder returns.

In recent reports, S&P forecasts Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) to increase between 3 per cent and 7 per cent in 2026, down from 9.1 per cent growth in 2025. The agency points to near-full hotel occupancy, limited new capacity and softer consumption as the main reasons behind the slowdown. Total GGR is also expected to remain 10 per cent to 15 per cent below pre-pandemic levels, largely because of the sharp decline in the junket segment.

Despite slower top-line growth, S&P expects earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to remain resilient. EBITDA for rated operators is projected to rise by around 5 per cent in 2026, supported by stable premium mass demand, controlled promotional spending and modest wage increases. The agency describes the sector as moving from a rebound phase into a more maturity-driven cycle. “Macau’s gaming boom is fading,” S&P stated.

Market share dynamics are also shifting. Sands China and Melco Resorts are expected to gain ground in the mass market as new and refurbished assets ramp up, including The Londoner Macao and Melco’s Countdown Hotel at City of Dreams. MGM is seen as broadly holding its position, while SJM Holdings could lose some share due to underperforming assets and weaker traffic redistribution following satellite casino closures. Wynn Macau and MGM China may see slower EBITDA growth because of limited new hotel capacity and stronger competition.

At the same time, S&P warns that cash flow will remain under pressure. Heavy capital spending and shareholder payouts are likely to push aggregate discretionary cash flow into deficit in 2026. At a group level, parent companies such as MGM Resorts and Wynn Resorts are still committing significant capital to projects outside Macau, including developments in Japan and the United Arab Emirates.

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The ratings agency expects revenue growth to ease in 2026, with steady EBITDA supported by premium mass demand. Macau.- Gaming in Macau is levelling out following the post-pandemic recovery for…