Macau GGR to rise by 5% in 2026, analysts forecast

The revised forecast reflects stronger-than-expected casino gross gaming revenue for next year.

Macau.- Investment bank CLSA has upgraded its forecast for Macau’s GGR for 2026 to US$32.3bn. Analysts predict the GGR will rise by 5 per cent year-on-year. The forecast is also above the government’s own estimate of MOP236bn (US$29.59bn), but would still represent a slow down in growth from the 8.8 per cent growth expected for full-year 2025.

Analysts Jeffrey Kiang and Leo Pan predicted a daily GGR of MOP709m (US$88.5m) per day. They expect Macau GGR for this year to reach US$30.6bn.

“We marginally raise our projection for 2025 Macau GGR by 0.4 per cent as we insert the actual GGR print for October while keeping our forecast unchanged,” Kiang and Pan said, adding that growth would be supported by a stronger renminbi versus dollar and a “currently positive industrial profit indicator”.

The analysts predict that growth will moderate going into the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, they predict that dividend payments from Macau’s concessionaires will grow further, driven by rising revenues and improved free cash flow across the sector.

Kiang and Pan forecast that the sector will generate recurring free cash flow to equity holders (FCFE) of US$4.2bn in 2026, and that dividend payments will rise to US$2.9bn. This would represent a dividend payout ratio of 68.1 per cent compared with a ratio of 50.6 per cent in 2025.

The government’s draft budget plan forecasts MOP236bn (US$29.4bn) in gross gaming revenue in Macau for 2026 Income from taxes on the gaming sector is estimated to reach MOP92.53bn (US$11.5bn) for 2026.

Macau’s secretary for economy and finance, Tai Kin Ip, described this as a “cautious stance” in his introductory speech on the budget plan at the plenary session of the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday (November 25).

Macau’s 2026 budget plan projects a MOP5.31bn (US$0.66bn) surplus, with total fiscal income estimated at MOP118.8bn (US$14.9bn), of which approximately 70 per cent (MOP82.6bn or US$10.35bn) is expected to come from the 35 per cent special gaming tax levy. The proposal passed its first reading during the session and is now scheduled for further discussion at the Legislative Assembly.

See also:

See also: Macau GGR dip due to National Games, Citigroup says

The revised forecast reflects stronger-than-expected casino gross gaming revenue for next year. Macau.- Investment bank CLSA has upgraded its forecast for Macau’s GGR for 2026 to US$32.3bn. Analysts predict the…