Macau January GGR outperforming pre-pandemic seasonal trends, says UBS

Macau’s average daily GGR is tracking above historical seasonal patterns.

Macau.- UBS says gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos has shown solid momentum in January, outperforming pre-pandemic seasonal trends. It estimates that month-to-date average daily GGR reached approximately MOP712m (US$88.8m) as of January 26.

That’s a year-on-year increase of around 21 per cent and a month-on-month rise of about 6 per cent. The typical seasonal increase between 2015 and 2019 was closer to 2 per cent.

UBS noted that performance was broadly stable in the last week of the month, with average daily GGR of MOP693m (US$86.2m), in line with the prior seven-day period. The sustained daily run-rate suggests resilient demand outside peak holiday periods after year-end festive activity fell short of expectations.

Mass-market GGR was estimated to have increased by 6 to 8 per cent month-on-month. Looking ahead to the Lunar New Year period, UBS said that 27 of the 32 hotels it tracks were sold out, in line with last year. UBS maintained Galaxy Entertainment and Wynn Macau as its sector top picks, rating both stocks as buys.

Analysts at JP Morgan have estimated that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 25 days of January was MOP17.8bn (US$2.22bn). The estimated daily run rate was MOP712m (US$88.6m), considerably higher than December’s MOP624m (US$77.7m) per day.

Analysts DS Kim, Selina Li and Lindsey Qian wrote: “We are still comfortable modelling January GGR to grow 15 to 20 per cent year-on-year, likely towards the high-end of this range, which in turn should allow GGR to grow circa 13 per cent in (the first) two months of 2026 and first-quarter 2026.”

Last week, JP Morgan lowered its full-year 2026 forecast for adjusted EBITDA in the Macau gaming industry to MOP71.9bn (US$8.95 bn). According to a note, this figure represents around 3–4 per cent below Street estimates, or “average minus 6 per cent excluding Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd.”

The bank revised the sector’s adjusted EBITDA due to dwindling confidence in the sustainability of Macau casino profit margins.

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See also: Macau visitors for 2025 up 14.7% year-on-year

Macau’s average daily GGR is tracking above historical seasonal patterns. Macau.- UBS says gross gaming revenue (GGR) at Macau casinos has shown solid momentum in January, outperforming pre-pandemic seasonal trends….