Seaport Research Partners shares forecast for Macau 2025 GGR

Analysts expect GGR to be up 8 per cent year-on-year.

Macau.- Analysts at Seaport Research Partners have forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter of 2025 will be up 4.4 per cent year-on-year and 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter.

Analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that GGR in January could be up 6.6 per cent year-on-year and 13.3 per cent sequentially. He attributed the growth to the impact of the “Lunar New Year holiday period” which will run from January 28 to February 3.

He also said that GGR for 2025 is expected to be up 8 per cent year-on-year and added he doesn’t expect any negative pronouncements with respect to Macau coming from China in the foreseeable future.

See also: Gaming in Macau: GGR to reach US$30.2bn in 2025, analysts say

GGR for the fourth quarter of 2024 reached MOP57.4bn (US$7.15bn). That’s an increase of 6.1 per cent year-on-year and a 3.3 per cent rise from the previous quarter. GGR for the full-year was MOP226.78bn (US$28.39bn), up 23.8 per cent year-on-year. However, the figure was down 22.45 per cent compared to 2019 levels, when GGR reached MOP292.45bn (US$36.7bn). The results have surpassed the Macau government’s expectations. Authorities have forecast GGR could hit MOP216bn (US$27.07bn) in 2024.

December’s GGR was down 1.3 per cent sequentially from MOP18.44bn (US$2.31bn) to MOP18.2bn (US$2.28bn). Compared to the same month in 2023, the figure was down by 2 per cent. It was the third-lowest of the year, mainly due to President Xi Jinping’s visit for the 25th Anniversary of Macau’s handover to China on December 20. 

Citigroup forecasts strong start for Macau GGR in 2025

Yesterday (January 7), Citigroup projected that Macau’s GGR for January will reach MOP19bn (US$2.38bn), averaging MOP613m (US$76.7m) per day. The figure would be 76 per cent of 2019 levels.

Although GGR for January alone would be down 2 per cent year-on-year, analyst George Choi said that GGR for January and February combined could reach MOP40bn (US$5.01bn). That’s a rise of 6 per cent year-on-year.

Citigroup said that its forecast “neutralises the impact of the timing of Chinese New Year” and the Golden Week that will take place from January 28 to February 4. Analysts further said the January projection also reflected a slower travel period leading up to Chinese New Year, which usually happens about two weeks before Golden Week.

Choi explained that the expected 2 per cent decline in year-on-year terms for January is due to the timing of the Spring Festival travel rush, a time that is typically quieter for Macau.

Analysts expect GGR to be up 8 per cent year-on-year. Macau.- Analysts at Seaport Research Partners have forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the first quarter of 2025…