CLSA cuts Macau 2026 GGR forecast after weak June performance and expectation of a soft July
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Analysts believe the market consensus assumes a stronger acceleration in the second half of the year than what recent performance suggests.
Macau.- CLSA has lowered its forecast for Macau’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR). It now expects annual growth of 2.3 per cent to MOP253.2bn (US$31.3bn) after a weaker-than-expected June and a softer outlook for July.
The revised forecast follows a 12 per cent year-on-year decline in June GGR. CLSA also expects July revenue to be down 12 per cent year-on-year at MOP19.5bn (US$2.41bn), although it anticipates daily GGR to recover from mid-July as the impact of the FIFA World Cup fades.
Citigroup has maintained its forecast that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP19bn (US$2.35bn) in July, representing a 5 per cent year-on-year decline. According to the brokerage, industry GGR for the first 12 days of July is estimated at around MOP7.3bn (US$904m), implying average daily revenue of approximately MOP608m (US$75.3m). Citi estimates that daily GGR slowed to MOP580m (US$71.8m) during the July 7-12 period, compared with MOP650m (US$80.5m) over the first six days of the month.
Citi said the market would need an average daily GGR of about MOP635m (US$78.6m) for the remainder of July to meet its monthly forecast of MOP19bn (US$2.35bn), a level the brokerage believes is achievable given the expected post-World Cup rebound.
However, CLSA believes the market consensus forecast assumes a stronger acceleration in the second half of the year than recent performance suggests. However CLSA says that Macau’s premium segment remains resilient. It estimates that GGR per overnight visitor increased 7 per cent year-on-year during April and May, suggesting that higher-value customers continue to support gaming revenues as the proportion of overnight visitors declined.
Analysts believe the market consensus assumes a stronger acceleration in the second half of the year than what recent performance suggests. Macau.- CLSA has lowered its forecast for Macau’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR). It now expects annual growth of 2.3 per cent to MOP253.2bn (US$31.3bn) after a weaker-than-expected June and a softer outlook for…
