Analysts expect tight profitability despite GGR growth.
Macau.- Jefferies has said it expects Macau casino operators to face continued pressure on adjusted EBITDA margins in the first quarter of 2026 due to geopolitical uncertainty, competitive reinvestment and evolving player mix. In a research note, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said first-quarter margins are likely to be “challenging and similar to fourth quarter 2025”.
They warned that “geopolitics remain a key uncertainty” for demand trends in 2026.
Macau’s casino revenue rose 14.3 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter. Jefferies has maintained its full-year forecast of 6.8 per cent GGR growth, slightly ahead of market expectations of 6 per cent, but profitability is expected to lag due to higher reinvestment and competition for premium customers.
It says operators continue to prioritise market share and premium segments, which typically require higher incentives and promotional spending. Analysts said margins are likely to remain constrained even as visitation and gaming volumes gradually rise.
Jefferies identified SJM Holdings as a potential outlier, forecasting adjusted EBITDA growth of 13 per cent in 2026, followed by 14 per cent in 2027 and 8 per cent in 2028. The firm expects margins to improve from 14 per cent to 16 per cent supported by operational efficiencies and the ramp-up of Grand Lisboa Palace, satellite casino closures and improved cost discipline.
Among other operators, it sees Galaxy Entertainment as a top pick due to expansion plans and premium positioning, while it believes Sands China, Wynn Macau and MGM China are focusing on higher-value customers and EBITDA growth rather than market share gains.
Analysts expect tight profitability despite GGR growth. Macau.- Jefferies has said it expects Macau casino operators to face continued pressure on adjusted EBITDA margins in the first quarter of 2026 due to geopolitical uncertainty, competitive reinvestment and evolving player mix. In a research note, analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei said first-quarter margins are likely…
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