Macau economy to remain stable into 2026 as gaming growth shows signs of moderation

The Macau Economic Association expects steady performance in the first quarter, supported by tourism and casinos.

Macau.- Macau’s economy closed 2025 on a stable footing and is expected to maintain steady performance in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest report from the Macau Economic Association (MEA). While gaming revenue and tourism continue to underpin economic activity, the association cautioned that growth momentum, particularly in the gaming sector, is beginning to moderate.

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) continued to post year-on-year growth toward the end of 2025, although December recorded a slight decline compared to November. Average daily GGR stood at MOP703m (US$87,5m) in November and MOP674m (US$83,9m) in December, a trend the MEA said points to a gradual easing in growth momentum after a strong post-pandemic recovery.

Tourism remained the key driver of the city’s economy. Visitor arrivals reached a record 40.06 million in 2025, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak of 2019 and rising 14.7 per cent year-on-year. Hotel occupancy rates and average room prices stayed at levels described as “hot” to “overheated,” particularly during peak travel periods.

The labour market also remained resilient, with the unemployment rate holding at a low 1.7 per cent, reflecting sustained demand for workers across tourism and gaming-related sectors. However, the MEA warned that the recovery remains uneven. Small and medium-sized enterprises continue to face operational pressure amid external uncertainties, shifting consumption patterns and sluggish income growth among residents.

The report also highlighted weaker sentiment beyond the tourism core. Mainland China’s consumer confidence index has remained in a depressed range for an extended period, potentially weighing on visitor spending. Meanwhile, the share prices of Macau’s six gaming concessionaires continue to sit in what the association described as a “poor” range, reflecting cautious investor sentiment toward the medium-term outlook.

Looking ahead, the MEA forecasts Macau’s economic sentiment index to remain between 6.1 and 6.3 points in the first quarter of 2026, broadly in line with the final months of last year. The integrated tourism and leisure sector, led by casino operators, is expected to continue acting as the city’s main economic engine, supported by expanded tourism promotion, more diversified leisure offerings and peak travel during the Spring Festival.

Despite this solid foundation, the association noted that overall economic conditions will likely remain mixed, with large enterprises performing well while smaller businesses in residential areas continue to face significant challenges as growth gradually cools.

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The Macau Economic Association expects steady performance in the first quarter, supported by tourism and casinos. Macau.- Macau’s economy closed 2025 on a stable footing and is expected to maintain…