Analysts attribute a gap between revenue and earnings growth to changes in the revenue mix and normal fluctuations in VIP gambling performance.
Macau.- Analysts at Citigroup have forecast that Macau gaming EBITDA rose around 8 per cent year-on-year to US$2.15bn in Q1 amid a 14 per cent rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP65.9bn (US$8.17bn). George Choi and Timothy Chau attribute the gap between revenue and earnings growth to changes in the revenue mix and normal fluctuations in VIP gambling performance.
A rebound in direct VIP play, combined with softer hold rates at some properties, is believed to have diluted margins. However, they say profitability levels are not deteriorating significantly. EBITDA margins are expected to remain close to 27 per cent, suggesting that operators are keeping reinvestment spending under control while maintaining competitive pressure in the premium mass segment, they said.
The analysts said gaming activity is showing little sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty or economic concerns.
On market share performance, Citigroup expects Melco to increase its share to around 15.7 per cent from 14.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, while Wynn Macau‘s share is expected to rise to 13.4 per cent from 12.2 per cent. The analysts said they believe this “would have been much higher if its VIP hold rates at both of its properties were normal.”
Sands China is projected to increase its market share to 25.5 per cent and to lead the sector in EBITDA growth, at about 20 per cent year-on-year to nearly US$643m.
Among the remaining operators, Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China and SJM Holdings likely to see mixed results in market share and earnings. Citigroup expects SJM Holdings to underperform the market, with an estimated 6 per cent year-on-year decline in EBITDA.
Analysts attribute a gap between revenue and earnings growth to changes in the revenue mix and normal fluctuations in VIP gambling performance. Macau.- Analysts at Citigroup have forecast that Macau gaming EBITDA rose around 8 per cent year-on-year to US$2.15bn in Q1 amid a 14 per cent rise in gross gaming revenue (GGR) to MOP65.9bn…
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